Election Poll · Estimate, not an official result

2028 Election Polls — Turkey polling average

Name: Turkey Election Results (2009-2024 ballot-box level · parliamentary 1950–2024)
Creator: Sandık Atlası
License: https://sandikatlasi.com/veri-kullanimi

It compiles the latest public polls; it takes each pollster's most recent survey and shows their median (the middle value). No weighting is applied — who said what, and the source, is listed one by one below.

Next parliamentary election · by 7 May 2028Included: 11 pollstersSource: public pollsUpdated: 12 September 2026

President · runoff (vs. Erdoğan)

Summary of two-candidate (head-to-head) polls — the median of each pollster's latest survey (last 90 days). Whoever passes 50% wins. Candidates for the 2028 election are not official yet; these are possible-matchup polls.

CandidateErdoğandashed line = 50% threshold

Yavaş+14.02 polls

57.0

43.0

Özel-2.83 polls

48.6

51.4

İmamoğlu-3.03 polls

48.5

51.5

See the polls behind the median (each pollster's latest head-to-head poll)

Yavaş – Erdoğan 2 polls

Pollster	Date	Candidate %	Erdoğan %	Sample	Source
Gündemar	31 Jul	%60.2	%39.8	2.300	report ↗
SAROS	25 Jun	%53.8	%46.2	4.872	report ↗

Özel – Erdoğan 3 polls

Pollster	Date	Candidate %	Erdoğan %	Sample	Source
Gündemar	31 Jul	%58.7	%41.3	2.300	report ↗
Özdemir	26 Jul	%48.6	%51.4	2.007	report ↗
SAROS	25 Jun	%41.7	%58.3	4.872	report ↗

İmamoğlu – Erdoğan 3 polls

Pollster	Date	Candidate %	Erdoğan %	Sample	Source
Özdemir	26 Aug	%43.8	%56.2	2.012	report ↗
Gündemar	31 Jul	%57.5	%42.5	2.300	report ↗
SAROS	25 Jun	%48.5	%51.5	4.872	report ↗

Runoff · over time (chart: monthly median + the 50% threshold)

President · first-round candidates

Multi-candidate first round: each candidate is polled separately and may not appear in every survey — the number next to the percentage shows how many polls included them. Coloured candidates have a settled party; grey candidates' party affiliation is unclear after the split.

Top 3: Erdoğan %35.1Yavaş %15.6İmamoğlu %12.5

All candidates and the poll table

Erdoğan3 polls%35.1

Yavaş3 polls%15.6

İmamoğlu2 polls%12.5

Fidan1 polls%11.2

Özel2 polls%8.7

Demirtaş3 polls%7.9

Kılıçdaroğlu2 polls%7.6

Dervişoğlu3 polls%3.5

Babacan1 polls%3.5

Ağıralioğlu2 polls%3.2

Özdağ2 polls%2.5

Erbakan3 polls%2.2

Pollster	Date	Sample	Erdoğan	Yavaş	İmamoğlu	Fidan	Özel	Demirtaş	Kılıçdaroğlu	Dervişoğlu	Babacan	Ağıralioğlu	Özdağ	Erbakan	Source
Özdemir	26 Aug	2.012	%32.7	%13.0	%12.9	%11.2	%9.0	%7.5	%0.6	%1.2	—	%4.0	%2.5	%0.5	report ↗
Asal	10 Aug	2.000	%35.1	%15.6	%12.1	—	%8.4	%7.9	—	%3.5	—	%2.4	%2.4	%2.2	report ↗
SAROS	15 Jun	4.872	%37.8	%19.9	—	—	—	%10.2	%14.7	%8.1	%3.5	—	—	%5.8	report ↗
MEDIAN	—	—	%35.1	%15.6	%12.5	%11.2	%8.7	%7.9	%7.6	%3.5	%3.5	%3.2	%2.5	%2.2	—

Parliament · party vote

Figure = median of latest polls · range = lowest–highest

AK Parti27.4–35.7%33.5

YENİ Parti13.8–38.6%20.1

DEM Parti7.6–11.4%9.2

MHP5.2–8.9%8.1

CHP2.9–14.3%8.0

İYİ Parti4.6–9.3%6.4

Zafer2.7–5.5%3.3

Anahtar2.0–3.9%2.8

Yeniden Refah1.4–3.1%2.2

TİP0.2–2.0%1.1

YENİ Parti's founding is taken as a zero point: merging pre-founding polls with later ones would meaninglessly distort the CHP average (the same voter counted under both CHP and YENİ Parti). The current median uses only post-split polls.

Last two years · trend

Thick line = monthly median · faint dots = individual polls

How is it calculated? median · no weighting · transparency · estimate

Median, not mean

An outlier or manipulative poll can't distort the average; the median stays in the middle.

No weighting

No pollster or sample weighting is applied; only each pollster's most recent poll is used. Party vote uses the last 45 days; presidential polls are rarer, so the 1st and 2nd rounds use the last 90 days.

Transparency

Every pollster is listed in the table with its source; no poll is hidden.

Estimate, not official

Official results come only from the YSK. During the poll blackout, the headline is hidden.

Included polls

Each pollster's most recent survey, with vote shares and source. The MEDIAN row below is the middle value of these polls.

Open the table (11 pollsters, with sources)

Pollster	Date	Sample	AKP	CHP	DEM	MHP	İYİ	YRP	Zafer	TİP	Anahtar	YENİ	Source
Areda Survey	31 Aug	2.400	%35.0	%11.1	%9.8	%8.9	%6.4	%2.3	%3.2	—	%3.4	%17.0	report ↗
BETİMAR	28 Aug	2.000	%35.4	%5.3	%9.2	%7.7	%9.3	%2.2	%2.8	%1.1	%3.6	%20.1	report ↗
Özdemir	26 Aug	2.012	%35.7	%7.5	%8.8	%5.8	%5.9	%2.4	%5.1	%0.2	%3.2	%24.4	report ↗
Optimar	21 Aug	2.500	%33.4	%8.0	%11.4	%8.1	%6.9	%2.4	%3.3	%1.2	%2.4	%18.2	report ↗
AREA	20 Aug	2.027	%34.0	%9.0	%7.8	%8.0	%9.0	%1.7	%3.6	—	%2.2	%21.0	report ↗
GENAR	15 Aug	2.200	%34.9	%7.0	%10.1	%8.5	%8.3	%2.1	%3.3	—	%2.8	%19.9	report ↗
ADA	15 Aug	2.500	%33.5	%5.8	%10.8	%8.6	%7.8	%1.7	%2.7	%0.9	%3.9	%22.2	report ↗
Türkiye'nin Fikri	15 Aug	—	%33.2	%14.3	%9.1	%7.9	%5.6	%1.4	%2.8	%2.0	%2.0	%13.8	report ↗
Asal	10 Aug	2.000	%33.4	%9.2	%9.5	%8.5	%4.6	%2.5	%3.3	%1.5	%2.7	%21.2	report ↗
Gündemar	31 Jul	2.300	%27.4	%2.9	%7.6	%5.2	%4.6	%3.1	%5.5	%0.6	%2.2	%38.6	report ↗
ORC	29 Jul	1.920	%32.5	%11.8	%8.5	%8.1	%5.6	%2.0	%3.8	—	—	%19.4	report ↗
MEDIAN (11 pollsters)	—	—	%33.5	%8.0	%9.2	%8.1	%6.4	%2.2	%3.3	%1.1	%2.8	%20.1	—

This is an estimate, not an official result. Polls can be off due to sampling error, method differences and timing; the median reduces this but does not remove it. Official data comes only from the Supreme Election Council (YSK). Sandık Atlası does not conduct polls; it compiles public polls and shows them with their source.

Data: general election ve presidential poll compilations (Wikipedia) · auto-updated · Sandık Atlası