Election Poll · Estimate, not an official result

2028 Election Polls — Turkey polling average

It compiles the latest public polls; it takes each pollster's most recent survey and shows their median (the middle value). No weighting is applied — who said what, and the source, is listed one by one below.

Next parliamentary election · by 7 May 2028Included: 8 pollstersSource: public pollsUpdated: 24 July 2026

President · runoff (vs. Erdoğan)

Summary of two-candidate (head-to-head) polls — the median of each pollster's latest survey (last 45 days). Whoever passes 50% wins. Candidates for the 2028 election are not official yet; these are possible-matchup polls.

CandidateErdoğandashed line = 50% threshold
Yavaş+17.0
58.5
41.5
İmamoğlu+2.6
51.3
48.7
Özel-1.0
49.5
50.5
CandidateCandidate %Erdoğan %MarginPolls
Yavaş%58.5%41.5+17.02
İmamoğlu%51.3%48.7+2.62
Özel%49.5%50.5-1.02
See the polls behind the median (each pollster's latest head-to-head poll)

Yavaş – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
Gündemar27 May%59.0%41.02.275report ↗
SAROS27 Apr%57.9%42.16.197report ↗

İmamoğlu – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
Gündemar27 May%55.9%44.12.275report ↗
SAROS27 Apr%46.7%53.36.197report ↗

Özel – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
Gündemar27 May%52.7%47.32.275report ↗
SAROS27 Apr%46.3%53.76.197report ↗

Runoff · over time

Thick line = monthly median · dots = individual polls · 50% line = winning threshold

President · first-round candidates

Each pollster may ask about a different CHP candidate; CHP candidate asked shows who was asked, while CHP total shows the sum of all CHP candidates asked in that poll — the only CHP figure comparable to Erdoğan.

Erdoğan%39.2
CHP total%39.3
Demirtaş%10.4
PollsterDateSampleErdoğanCHP candidate askedCHP totalDEM cand.OtherSource
Özdemir26 Jun2.011%41.8Özel %27.1 · Kesici %2.0%29.1%16.4—report ↗
Asal14 Jun2.000%36.7Yavaş %25.2 · İmamoğlu %15.7 +2%49.5%4.5%2.2report ↗
MEDIAN——%39.2—%39.3%10.4——

Parliament · party vote

Figure = median of latest polls · range = lowest–highest
AK Parti30.8–36.2%33.2
CHP26.0–31.4%30.4
DEM Parti7.9–10.0%9.1
MHP5.9–9.6%8.2
İYİ Parti4.0–8.8%6.7
Zafer2.1–6.1%3.0
Yeniden Refah1.4–3.9%2.8
Anahtar0.6–3.7%2.5
TİP1.0–2.6%1.3

Last two years · trend

Thick line = monthly median · faint dots = individual polls
Median, not mean
An outlier or manipulative poll can't distort the average; the median stays in the middle.
No weighting
No pollster or sample weighting is applied. Within the last 45 days only each pollster's most recent poll is used — the same rule for party, 1st- and 2nd-round.
Transparency
Every pollster is listed in the table with its source; no poll is hidden.
Estimate, not official
Official results come only from the YSK. During the poll blackout, the headline is hidden.

Included polls

Each pollster's most recent survey, with vote shares and source. The MEDIAN row below is the middle value of these polls.

PollsterDateSampleAKPCHPDEMMHPİYİYRPZaferTİPAnahtarSource
Gündemar27 Jun2.350%31.2%27.9%8.2%5.9%7.3%3.9%6.1%2.6%3.7report ↗
GENAR15 Jun—%36.2%28.3%9.2%8.1%7.1%3.9%2.1%1.3%2.5report ↗
Asal14 Jun2.000%33.1%30.9%9.2%8.3%5.8%2.9%2.9%1.3%3.2report ↗
AREA9 Jun2.008%32.3%30.7%9.3%7.2%6.3%2.7%3.2%2.1%3.4report ↗
Optimar25 May2.000%35.2%26.0%10.0%9.6%8.8%2.6%3.2—%0.6report ↗
MetroPOLL15 May—%30.8%31.3%7.9%9.5%8.4%3.1%2.9—%1.7report ↗
Türkiye'nin Fikri15 May—%33.2%30.1%9.1%7.9%5.6%1.4%2.8%1.0%1.2report ↗
ADA15 May—%35.3%31.4%8.9%8.9%4.0%2.8%3.0%1.1%2.6report ↗
MEDIAN (8 pollsters)——%33.2%30.4%9.1%8.2%6.7%2.8%3.0%1.3%2.5—
This is an estimate, not an official result. Polls can be off due to sampling error, method differences and timing; the median reduces this but does not remove it. Official data comes only from the Supreme Election Council (YSK). Sandık Atlası does not conduct polls; it compiles public polls and shows them with their source.

Data: general election ve presidential poll compilations (Wikipedia) · auto-updated · Sandık Atlası