Election Poll · Estimate, not an official result

2028 Election Polls — Turkey polling average

It compiles the latest public polls; it takes each pollster's most recent survey and shows their median (the middle value). No weighting is applied — who said what, and the source, is listed one by one below.

Next parliamentary election · by 7 May 2028Included: 12 pollstersSource: public pollsUpdated: 28 October 2026

President · runoff (vs. Erdoğan)

Summary of two-candidate (head-to-head) polls — the median of each pollster's latest survey (last 90 days). Whoever passes 50% wins. Candidates for the 2028 election are not official yet; these are possible-matchup polls.

CandidateErdoğandashed line = 50% threshold
Yavaş+12.02 polls
56.0
44.0
Özel+3.42 polls
51.7
48.3
İmamoğlu+1.22 polls
50.6
49.4
See the polls behind the median (each pollster's latest head-to-head poll)

Yavaş – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
İm Global31 Aug%51.9%48.12.216report ↗
Gündemar31 Jul%60.2%39.82.300report ↗

Özel – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
İm Global31 Aug%44.6%55.42.216report ↗
Gündemar31 Jul%58.7%41.32.300report ↗

İmamoğlu – Erdoğan 2 polls

PollsterDateCandidate %Erdoğan %SampleSource
Özdemir26 Aug%43.8%56.22.012report ↗
Gündemar31 Jul%57.5%42.52.300report ↗
Runoff · over time (chart: monthly median + the 50% threshold)

President · first-round candidates

Multi-candidate first round: each candidate is polled separately and may not appear in every survey — the number next to the percentage shows how many polls included them. Coloured candidates have a settled party; grey candidates' party affiliation is unclear after the split.

In some multi-candidate questions, the governing side is represented by a single name while several names from the same opposition camp (for example Yavaş, İmamoğlu and Özel) appear on the same list. In such questions opposition voters are split among these names, so the table can overstate the gap between the government candidate and the opposition; it is not a forecast of the election result. For a head-to-head between government and opposition, see the second-round section above.

Top 3: Erdoğan %35.1Yavaş %14.3İmamoğlu %12.5

All candidates and the poll table
Erdoğan3 polls%35.1
Yavaş2 polls%14.3
İmamoğlu2 polls%12.5
Fidan1 polls%11.2
Özel3 polls%9.0
Demirtaş3 polls%7.9
Ağıralioğlu3 polls%4.0
Özdağ3 polls%2.5
Dervişoğlu2 polls%2.4
Erbakan3 polls%2.2
Kesici1 polls%1.2
Kılıçdaroğlu1 polls%0.6
PollsterDateSampleErdoğanYavaşİmamoğluFidanÖzelDemirtaşAğıralioğluÖzdağDervişoğluErbakanKesiciKılıçdaroğluSource
İm Global31 Aug2.216%38.8———%23.0%13.0%7.4%12.3—%4.3%1.2—report ↗
Özdemir26 Aug2.012%32.7%13.0%12.9%11.2%9.0%7.5%4.0%2.5%1.2%0.5—%0.6report ↗
Asal10 Aug2.000%35.1%15.6%12.1—%8.4%7.9%2.4%2.4%3.5%2.2——report ↗
MEDIAN——%35.1%14.3%12.5%11.2%9.0%7.9%4.0%2.5%2.4%2.2%1.2%0.6—

Parliament · party vote

Figure = median of latest polls · range = lowest–highest
AK Parti28.2–36.1%33.3
YENİ Parti16.2–30.6%23.4
DEM Parti7.1–10.9%9.1
MHP3.8–9.1%7.0
İYİ Parti5.9–9.3%6.9
CHP3.1–12.2%6.7
Zafer2.8–7.7%3.8
Anahtar2.2–5.9%3.1
Yeniden Refah1.5–3.4%2.5
TİP0.9–1.8%1.5

YENİ Parti's founding is taken as a zero point: merging pre-founding polls with later ones would meaninglessly distort the CHP average (the same voter counted under both CHP and YENİ Parti). The current median uses only post-split polls.

Last two years · trend

Thick line = monthly median · faint dots = individual polls
How is it calculated? median · no weighting · transparency · estimate
Median, not mean
An outlier or manipulative poll can't distort the average; the median stays in the middle.
No weighting
No pollster or sample weighting is applied; only each pollster's most recent poll is used. Party vote uses the last 45 days; presidential polls are rarer, so the 1st and 2nd rounds use the last 90 days.
Transparency
Every pollster is listed in the table with its source; no poll is hidden.
Estimate, not official
Official results come only from the YSK. During the poll blackout, the headline is hidden.

Included polls

Each pollster's most recent survey, with vote shares and source. The MEDIAN row below is the middle value of these polls.

Open the table (12 pollsters, with sources)
PollsterDateSampleAKPCHPDEMMHPİYİYRPZaferTİPAnahtarYENİSource
Asal10 Oct2.020%31.6%5.1%8.8%8.0%7.1%2.9%3.4—%3.2%25.2report ↗
AREA9 Oct2.050%30.7%7.0%7.1%6.6%7.4%1.8%5.1%1.5%5.9%23.4report ↗
Kontak4 Oct1.773%28.5%12.2%8.5%3.8%6.8%3.1%7.7%1.6—%23.8report ↗
Gündemar30 Sep2.400%28.2%3.6%7.6%5.5%7.8%2.5%5.8%1.6%2.8%30.6report ↗
İm Global30 Sep2.105%31.2%6.8%9.3%6.2%5.9%3.1%5.8%1.3%3.2%23.5report ↗
SAROS26 Sep4.328%34.9%8.8%8.9%9.1%8.5%3.4%3.2%1.5%2.7%16.2report ↗
GENAR15 Sep—%36.1%6.6%9.4%8.0%7.7%2.5%2.8%0.9%3.0%21.6report ↗
PanoramaTR15 Sep—%34.3%3.1%7.8%5.3%6.7%1.8%4.9—%2.7%28.8report ↗
Özdemir14 Sep2.020%35.4%5.8%9.2%6.5%6.6%2.5%4.2%1.0%3.1%24.0report ↗
Optimar9 Sep3.000%32.4%7.4%10.9%7.5%6.8%1.5%3.0%1.8%2.2%22.0report ↗
Areda Survey31 Aug2.400%35.0%11.1%9.8%8.9%6.4%2.3%3.2—%3.4%17.0report ↗
BETİMAR28 Aug2.000%35.4%5.3%9.2%7.7%9.3%2.2%2.8%1.1%3.6%20.1report ↗
MEDIAN (12 pollsters)——%33.3%6.7%9.1%7.0%6.9%2.5%3.8%1.5%3.1%23.4—
This is an estimate, not an official result. Polls can be off due to sampling error, method differences and timing; the median reduces this but does not remove it. Official data comes only from the Supreme Election Council (YSK). Sandık Atlası does not conduct polls; it compiles public polls and shows them with their source.

Data: general election ve presidential poll compilations (Wikipedia) · auto-updated · Sandık Atlası