Between two parliamentary elections, İstanbul's overall picture seems to have changed little. But descend to the neighborhood level and the movement is far sharper: some districts swung one way while the one right next door behaved completely differently.
Across İstanbul as a whole, the parliamentary vote changed from 2018 to 2023 as follows (as a percentage of valid votes):
Parliamentary election, as a percentage of valid votes. Right = rose, left = fell.
The aggregate picture seems to say "little changed." The real story is in the neighborhoods.
In İstanbul's central, cosmopolitan districts (Cihangir, Beyoğlu, Şişli, Adalar), two things happened together in a single picture: Yeşil Sol / HDP's share fell sharply, CHP's share rose — and that, too, in the same neighborhoods.
Selected central neighborhoods · vote-share change (points), 2018 → 2023. Left (purple) = Yeşil Sol/HDP decline, right (red) = CHP rise.
This is the overlap of two pictures in the same place: the neighborhoods where Yeşil Sol/HDP fell the most are, to a large degree, the neighborhoods where CHP rose the most. The fact that the two moved in opposite directions suggests that in these cosmopolitan districts the left/opposition vote concentrated under the CHP umbrella.
Looking across all 647 neighborhoods, what stands out is this: there is not a single İstanbul neighborhood where AK Parti meaningfully increased its share. Even in the neighborhood where it "rose" the most, the increase is below 1% (Silivri/Akören, +0.6 points); everywhere else it was either flat or falling. And where it fell, it fell most in its own peripheral stronghold neighborhoods — the northern villages of Beykoz, Çatalca, Tuzla — and markedly in some urban neighborhoods:
| District · Neighborhood | 2018 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beykoz · Poyrazköy | 74.6% | 57.0% | −17.7 |
| Kadıköy · Dumlupınar | 41.4% | 24.4% | −17.0 |
| Çatalca · Karacaköy Merkez | 52.9% | 37.8% | −15.2 |
| Beykoz · Cumhuriyetköy | 60.5% | 45.3% | −15.1 |
| Tuzla · Orhanlı | 59.8% | 45.0% | −14.8 |
| Sultangazi · Malkoçoğlu | 72.7% | 59.7% | −13.1 |
Kadıköy/Dumlupınar is a perfect mirror: AK Parti lost −17 points here while CHP gained +15 points.
The neighborhoods where CHP increased its share the most are geographically consistent: the city center and relatively upper-income districts.
| District · Neighborhood | 2018 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adalar · Kınalıada | 33.0% | 48.4% | +15.3 |
| Kadıköy · Dumlupınar | 27.5% | 42.3% | +14.9 |
| Beyoğlu · Kılıçali Paşa | 41.8% | 54.3% | +12.5 |
| Şişli · Bozkurt | 41.1% | 53.1% | +12.1 |
| Üsküdar · Kandilli | 50.3% | 61.9% | +11.6 |
| Beşiktaş · Akat | 54.3% | 64.5% | +10.1 |
Where CHP fell, by contrast, was İstanbul's western countryside: the villages of Silivri and Çatalca (between −6 and −11 points).
İYİ Parti barely moved across İstanbul as a whole (8.1% → 8.2%). At the neighborhood level, too, the movements were small and scattered: a limited rise in a few western/upper-income neighborhoods (the most being Çatalca/Fatih +8.2), and a decline in rural Çatalca. It formed no clear geographic pattern.
Data and method. Source: Supreme Election Council (acikveri.ysk.gov.tr), neighborhood level. Elections: the 24 June 2018 and 14 May 2023 parliamentary elections. Metric: the percentage-point change in each party's valid vote share in a neighborhood between the two elections. Neighborhoods included: those with ≥500 voters in both elections and a voter-count change below 15%; institutional units such as prisons excluded (647 neighborhoods). Alliance total rows were excluded to avoid double counting. Yeşil Sol/HDP were combined as a single lineage across 2018 (HDP) and 2023 (Yeşil Sol Parti). Individual vote transfer cannot be inferred from aggregate data.