Impartial, commentary-free election analyses prepared with official YSK data.
Two technical numbers — turnout and invalid votes — trace a clear geography at the neighborhood level. Turnout falls in the city's thinning core; invalid votes cluster in the countryside and show a consistent gap by the neighborhood's party base. Both relate not to parties but to neighborhood profiles.
Read →In the capital, AK Parti's share rose in not a single neighborhood; its sharpest drops came in its own strongholds. CHP's rise, by contrast, was concentrated almost entirely in Çankaya. İYİ Parti surged in Beypazarı. A different pattern from İstanbul's.
Read →İstanbul's overall picture looks little changed; but at the neighborhood level the movement is far sharper. In central districts Yeşil Sol/HDP fell while CHP rose — in the very same neighborhoods. AK Parti, meanwhile, rose meaningfully in no neighborhood.
Read →In the same city, parliamentary and metropolitan elections produce very different vote movements between parties. And how much of that movement is a real "transfer," how much merely appearance? We examined it with within-district correlation and ecological-inference estimates.
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