Impartial, commentary-free election analyses prepared with official YSK data.
Ballot boxes are set up inside prisons at every election; on 31 March 2024 there were 290 of them across 207 institutions, with 35,176 people on the roll. Assembling thirteen years of results shows that the electorate behind those walls is itself what changed: in the same 134 institutions the number voting rose 2.3-fold by 2018, and the party split swung sharply before partly reversing. Also here: how institution types diverge, and why local elections look completely different.
Read →The neighborhood with the most voters is Bağcılar in Diyarbakır's Bağlar district: with 95,072 voters it alone outsizes 785 of Türkiye's 973 districts. The 15 largest neighborhoods by 2023 YSK data — and two different Türkiyes in one list: peripheral neighborhoods that surged twentyfold, like Kayabaşı, alongside long-established ones that have stood still for twelve years, like Zafer.
Read →In the election held three months after the earthquake, turnout collapsed by 13 points in Antakya — while in districts losing population outside the earthquake zone it barely moved. YSK and TÜİK data for 972 districts shows the loss tracked displacement rather than destruction: people left, their voter registrations stayed behind.
Read →From 2015 to 2023 the historic central districts lost voters while the new-housing zones on the periphery boomed: Esenyurt alone added 185,000 voters, Fatih lost 38,000. But did this profound migration change how people vote? Less than expected — what really changed was the ballot box's location, not its color.
Read →Two technical numbers — turnout and invalid votes — trace a clear geography at the neighborhood level. Turnout falls in the city's thinning core; invalid votes cluster in the countryside and show a consistent gap by the neighborhood's party base. Both relate not to parties but to neighborhood profiles.
Read →In the capital, AK Parti's share rose in not a single neighborhood; its sharpest drops came in its own strongholds. CHP's rise, by contrast, was concentrated almost entirely in Çankaya. İYİ Parti surged in Beypazarı. A different pattern from İstanbul's.
Read →İstanbul's overall picture looks little changed; but at the neighborhood level the movement is far sharper. In central districts Yeşil Sol/HDP fell while CHP rose — in the very same neighborhoods. AK Parti, meanwhile, rose meaningfully in no neighborhood.
Read →In the same city, parliamentary and metropolitan elections produce very different vote movements between parties. And how much of that movement is a real "transfer," how much merely appearance? We examined it with within-district correlation and ecological-inference estimates.
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